Lara Rhame

Lara is Chief U.S. Economist at FS Investments, where she analyzes developments in the global and U.S. economies and financial markets. Her fresh take on macroeconomic issues helps to inform and develop the firm’s long-term views on the economy, investment trends and issues facing investors. Lara is committed to the Philadelphia community and serves on the board of Starr Garden Park and has been involved with BalletX, a contemporary ballet company.

Strong economic growth but rising risks in 2018

Sustained above-trend growth raises the risk of meaningfully higher volatility, something which has already caught investors by surprise in 2018. What factors are causing positive momentum and are they set to continue?
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Q1 2018: Growth beyond potential

Recent positive cyclical momentum looks set to continue for some time, but long-term structural headwinds remain firmly entrenched. Despite strong growth, low interest rates could challenge investors in 2018.
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Q1 2018: Unemployment rate

The monthly payroll report will be front and center of the economic landscape again in 2018. In particular, the unemployment rate has now moved well below the Fed’s long-run equilibrium estimate.
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Q1 2018: Business investment

Weak business investment, which has underperformed during this expansion, is an obvious culprit holding back a productivity-related boost to potential output.
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Q1 2018: Potential GDP

Over the past several years, the Fed has revised its estimate of potential GDP growth downward. Lower potential growth has enormous implications for output, aggregate demand, and revenue generation in our economy.
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