My two favorite recession indicators

Our economy is slowing, and with partial yield curve inversion, investors are worried we’re heading into a recession. But two other indicators have a better track record at signaling one. Read why investors need to keep an eye on initial jobless claims and consumer confidence in Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame’s latest perspective.
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Crossroads or cruisin’?

Corporate credit markets delivered solid returns until equities sunk and the yield curve inverted in May. Now they appear poised to provide positive returns through year-end. Our Investment Research team explores what’s behind this reversal and where risks lie over the second half of the year.
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Spread environment

High yield bond spreads | Senior secured loan spreads | Yield gap: High yield bonds vs. Senior secured loans
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Credit fundamentals

High yield EBITDA and revenue growth | High yield leverage and interest coverage | Loan market EBITDA and revenue growth | Loan leverage and interest coverage
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The corrosive effects of policy uncertainty

The unknowns facing our economy today, coupled with a tight labor market and deteriorating business sentiment, are slowing economic growth and may amplify market volatility. Read Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame’s assessment of uncertainty’s impact on consumers and investors in the months ahead.
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