My two favorite recession indicators

Our economy is slowing, and with partial yield curve inversion, investors are worried we’re heading into a recession. But two other indicators have a better track record at signaling one. Read why investors need to keep an eye on initial jobless claims and consumer confidence in Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame’s latest perspective.
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A potentially dangerous curve

If the yield curve inverts, will a recession follow? Not necessarily, given how far from normal the current expansion and Fed rate hike cycle are. We believe investors should instead watch out for volatility sparked by recession fears and prepare for especially challenged traditional income sources.
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